Odds of flopping the Straight Flush with A2s = 1/19,600 = 0.00005 or roughly 0.005% To make the exact Straight Flush in question, only one of these 19,600 combinations will do the job.Īrmed with that information, we can now establish a range of different probabilities. In other words, there are 19,600 different possible sets of three cards that may fall on the flop given that our two hole cards are already known. Since there are 6 possible ways of arranging three cards, we can simply divide our number of permutations (117,600) by 6 to establish the number of possible three-card combinations on the flop.ġ17,600 / 6 = 19,600 possible combinations of three cards on the flop (given two cards are known) What we are interested in is the number of possible combinations of three cards.Ī combination is similar to a permutation but doesn’t account for the order. a 3,4,5 flop is the same as a 5,3,4 flop, for all intents and purposes). Of course, in Hold’em, the order of the cards on the flop doesn’t matter (i.e. In statistics, this type of calculation is referred to as a permutation and accounts for the order of the flop cards.

In order to calculate, we’ll first need to know how many combinations of three cards are possible on the flop.įirstly, how many different combinations of three cards can be dealt on the flop? Assuming we care about the order of the three cards (and that our two hole cards are already known), the answer is 117,600 (50 * 49 * 48). The flop has to come down precisely Three, Four, Five of the correct suit. Why do we choose this example? It’s the easiest one because it provides only one way of making the Straight Flush. What are the odds of flopping the Ace to Five Straight Flush? Let’s start with a very specific example. The odds of flopping a Straight Flush are so unlikely (0.02% or less) that the majority of poker equity calculators don’t even show the precise odds. We specifically need to start out with two suited connected cards for this to be possible.

Odds of Making a Straight Flush on the Flopįlopping a Straight Flush seldom happens in poker. The Ten to Ace Straight Flush is the strongest hand in poker and is referred to as the “Royal Flush”. The odds of flopping a straight flush with a premium suited connector such as T9s is 0.02% or 1 in 4,900įive cards of consecutive rank, all of the same suit.Example – 5d6d7d8d9d

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